CDC Surveillance System: Projected U.S. Population by Age

Percentages of Projected U.S. Population by Gender and Year and Age United States Census
Year	Age	Male	Female	Total
2000	0–19 years	29.8%	27.3%	28.6%
2000	20–39 years	29.7%	28.1%	28.9%
2000	40–59 years	26.3%	26.2%	26.3%
2000	60–69 years	6.9%	7.5%	7.2%
2000	70+ years	7.3%	10.8%	9.0%
2010	0–19 years	28.1%	25.9%	27.0%
2010	20–39 years	27.5%	26.2%	26.8%
2010	40–59 years	27.7%	27.7%	27.7%
2010	60–69 years	9.2%	9.8%	9.5%
2010	70+ years	7.6%	10.4%	9.0%
2020	0–19 years	27.5%	25.5%	26.5%
2020	20–39 years	27.0%	25.4%	26.2%
2020	40–59 years	25.0%	24.7%	24.9%
2020	60–69 years	11.1%	11.8%	11.5%
2020	70+ years	9.4%	12.6%	11.0%
2050	0–19 years	27.0%	25.0%	26.0%
2050	20–39 years	25.8%	24.4%	25.1%
2050	40–59 years	23.3%	22.6%	22.9%
2050	60–69 years	10.1%	10.3%	10.2%
2050	70+ years	13.8%	17.7%	15.8%

The proportions of people aged 60 years or older are expected to increase between 2000 and 2050 for both males (17% to 25%) and females (20% to 28%).

In 2010, 18% of U.S. residents were 60 years or older.

23% of white non-Hispanic residents were 60 years or older but only 13% of black, 13% of Hispanic, 14% of Asian, and 9% of other race/ethnicity residents were 60 years or older; similar patterns are expected through 2050, with the proportion of people aged 60 years or older growing in every race/ethnicity subgroup.

Chart Explanation: The proportion of the population aged 60-69 or 70 years or older is expected to increase from 18% in 2010 to 26.0% in 2050. The proportion of the population comprising the younger age groups will consequently decline, with the percentages of people in the U.S. population being 20-39 and 40-59 years each decreasing from 26.8% and 27.7% to 23.0% and 23.2%, respectively, by the year 2050. The proportions of the U.S. population in various age groups differed in 2010, with 22.9% of white non-Hispanic residents 60 years or older; only 13.2%, 13.3%, 14.3%, and 8.7% of people who were Hispanic, black, Asian, and other race/ethnicity were 60 years or older in 2010; similar patterns are expected through 2050, but with the proportion of people aged 60 years or older is growing for every race/ethnicity group. Among Hispanics and blacks, 37.6% and 31.1% were 0 to 19 years old, compared with 22.8% of white non-Hispanics, in 2010; by 2050, 30.6%, 27.9%, and 22.6% of these same populations are expected to be 0- to 19-year olds. The proportions of the people aged 60 years or older are expected to increase between 2000 and 2050 for both males (16.8% to 24.9%) and females (20.2% to 28.0%). Females are expected to continue to have longer life expectancy and thus have greater proportions in the age group 60 years or older than males, regardless of projection year.

As with most chronic diseases, increased age is a well-known and powerful risk factor for the development of CKD (National Kidney Foundation, http://www.kidney.org/kidneydisease/ckd/index.cfm); consequently, prevalence of CKD is highest among older Americans (Coresh et al., 2007). Additionally, U.S. incidence of ESRD is highest among older adults (United States Renal Data System, 2011). Although age is not modifiable, it remains important for a U.S. CKD surveillance system to estimate the proportions of the population who will be among the older age (i.e., higher-risk) groups for both incidence and progress, as the U.S. population changes over time. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) conducts a decennial population census, as mandated by the U.S. Constitution to guide apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Census 2000 and Census 2010 contained items regarding age, gender, race, Hispanic/Latino origin, and housing characteristics and was administered to the entire resident population of the United States. From the data collected, both population estimates (www.factfinder2.com) and projections (United States Census Bureau, 2008; http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/index.html) are available publicly.

As with most chronic diseases, increased age is a well-known and powerful risk factor for the development of CKD (National Kidney Foundation, http://www.kidney.org/kidneydisease/ckd/index.cfm); consequently, prevalence of CKD is highest among older Americans (Coresh et al., 2007). Additionally, U.S. incidence of ESRD is highest among older adults (United States Renal Data System, 2011). Although age is not modifiable, it remains important for a U.S. CKD surveillance system to estimate the proportions of the population who will be among the older age (i.e., higher-risk) groups for both incidence and progress, as the U.S. population changes over time. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) conducts a decennial population census, as mandated by the U.S. Constitution to guide apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Census 2000 and Census 2010 contained items regarding age, gender, race, Hispanic/Latino origin, and housing characteristics and was administered to the entire resident population of the United States. From the data collected, both population estimates (www.factfinder2.com) and projections (United States Census Bureau, 2008; http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/index.html) are available publicly.

Field	Data
Description of Measure	Age in the general population
Data Source	United States Census
Type of Data Source	Public
Data Set	U.S. estimates/projections 2000-2050
Health Care System Data	No
Regional or National?	National
Demographic Group	All U.S. residents
Numerator	Number of U.S. residents in defined age groups
Denominator	Number of all U.S. residents
Primary Data Source Indicator	Age (in years)
Primary Indicator Method of Measurement	Questionnaire (census-taking)
Secondary (1) Variable	Race/ethnicity
Secondary (1) Indicator Method of Measurement	Questionnaire (census-taking)
Secondary (2) Variable	Gender
Secondary (2) Indicator Method of Measurement	Questionnaire (census-taking)
Frequency of Measurement (Primary)	Every 10 years (cross-sectional)
U.S. Region Covered by Primary Variable	All
Period Currently Available	2050
Pending Data	2010 projections, 2020 estimates
Additional Data Items of Interest	Projections of U.S. population by demographic group through 2050
Limitations of Indicator	Self-reported race/ethnicity; projections associated with some amount of error
Analytic Considerations	Age groups are reported in 1-year intervals and can be collapsed into any intervals; race/ethnicity must be examined separately, non-Hispanic white and Hispanic white should be separated

References and Sources:

National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. USRDS 2011 Annual Data Report: Atlas of Chronic Kidney Disease and End-Stage Renal Disease in the United States, Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health; 2011.
https://www.usrds.org/reference.aspx
Hollmann FW, Mulder TJ, Kallan JE. Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100. Population Division Working Paper No. 38; January 2000.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0038.pdf
Coresh J, Selvin E, Stevens LA, et al. Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the United States. JAMA. 2007;298(17):2038-47.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17986697

Suggested Citation:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Chronic Kidney Disease Surveillance System—United States.
website. http://www.cdc.gov/ckd