CDC Surveillance System: Estimated and Projected U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity

Total Estimated and Projected U.S. Population in Millions by Year and Race/Ethnicity United States Census
Race/Ethnicity	2000	2010	2020	2050
White, non-Hispanic	195.7	196.8	205.9	210.3
Black, non-Hispanic	35.8	37.7	45.4	61.4
Hispanic	32.8	50.5	54.7	92.3
Asian	10.7	14.5	18.0	33.4
Total	282.1	308.7	335.8	419.9

Although the numbers in all race/ethnicity groups are expected to continue growing between 2010 and 2050, the number of persons of non-Hispanic black (38 to 61 million), Asian (14 to 33 million), and, especially, Hispanic white (50 to 92 million) race/ethnicity, are expected to grow much faster than the number of persons of non-Hispanic white race/ethnicity (197 to 210 million).

The U.S. population was 309 million in 2010; by 2050, the U.S. population is estimated to be greater than 400 million persons.

Chart Explanation: According to the U.S. Census, the total U.S. population in 2010 was 308,745,538; by 2050, the population is expected to be 419,853,587. While the populations of white, black, Asian, and other (including two or more races) races are all expected to grow over time, the rates of growth are expected to be much higher in the black (37.7 to 61.4 million), Hispanic (50.5 to 92.3 million), and Asian (14.5 to 33.4 million) populations, relative to the non-Hispanic white population (196.8 to 210.3 million).

CKD is more common is some racial and ethnic subgroups. Additionally, progression to ESRD is more common among blacks (who account for 29% of the ESRD population, compared to 12% of the general population) (United States Renal Data System, 2011) and white Hispanics (Peralta et al., 2006); however, the risk of mortality is lower in these subgroups. Thus, race/ethnicity could be considered a risk factor (albeit non-modifiable) for both initiation and progression of CKD. It is important for a U.S. CKD surveillance system to estimate the proportions of the population that will fall into these higher-risk categories as the population changes over time. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) conducts a population census every 10 years, as mandated by the U.S. Constitution to guide apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Census 2000 and Census 2010 contained items regarding age, gender, race, Hispanic/Latino origin, and housing characteristics and was administered to the entire resident population of the United States. From the data collected, both population estimates (www.factfinder2.com) and projections (United States Census Bureau, 2008; http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/index.html) are available publicly.

CKD is more common is some racial and ethnic subgroups. Additionally, progression to ESRD is more common among blacks (who account for 29% of the ESRD population, compared to 12% of the general population) (United States Renal Data System, 2011) and white Hispanics (Peralta et al., 2006); however, the risk of mortality is lower in these subgroups. Thus, race/ethnicity could be considered a risk factor (albeit non-modifiable) for both initiation and progression of CKD. It is important for a U.S. CKD surveillance system to estimate the proportions of the population that will fall into these higher-risk categories as the population changes over time. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) conducts a population census every 10 years, as mandated by the U.S. Constitution to guide apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Census 2000 and Census 2010 contained items regarding age, gender, race, Hispanic/Latino origin, and housing characteristics and was administered to the entire resident population of the United States. From the data collected, both population estimates (www.factfinder2.com) and projections (United States Census Bureau, 2008; http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/index.html) are available publicly.

Field	Data
Description of Measure	Race/ethnicity in the general population
Data Source	United States Census
Type of Data Source	Public
Data Set	U.S. estimates/projections 2000-2050
Health Care System Data	No
Regional or National?	National
Demographic Group	All U.S. residents
Numerator	Number of U.S. residents of particular race/ethnicity
Denominator	Number of all U.S. residents
Primary Data Source Indicator	Race/ethnicity
Primary Indicator Method of Measurement	Questionnaire (census-taking)
Secondary (1) Variable	Age
Secondary (1) Indicator Method of Measurement	Questionnaire (census-taking)
Secondary (2) Variable	Gender
Secondary (2) Indicator Method of Measurement	Questionnaire (census-taking)
Frequency of Measurement (Primary)	Every 10 years (cross-sectional)
U.S. Region Covered by Primary Variable	All
Period Currently Available	2050
Pending Data	2010 projections; 2020 estimates
Additional Data Items of Interest	Projections of U.S. population by demographic group through 2050
Limitations of Indicator	Self-reported race/ethnicity; projections associated with some amount of error
Analytic Considerations	Race/ethnicity must be examined separately; age groups/gender can be collapsed to get total numbers

References and Sources:

National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. USRDS 2011 Annual Data Report: Atlas of Chronic Kidney Disease and End-Stage Renal Disease in the United States, Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health; 2011.
https://www.usrds.org/reference.aspx
Peralta CA, Shlipak MG, Fan D, et al. Risks for end-stage renal disease, cardiovascular events, and death in Hispanic versus non-Hispanic white adults with chronic kidney disease. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2006;17(10):2892-9.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16959827
Hollmann FW, Mulder TJ, Kallan JE. Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100. Population Division Working Paper No. 38; January 2000.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0038.pdf

Suggested Citation:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Chronic Kidney Disease Surveillance System—United States.
website. http://www.cdc.gov/ckd