CDC Surveillance System: Estimated and Projected Population in the U.S.

Total Estimated and Projected Population in the United States by Year and Age United States Census
Age	2000	2010	2020	2050
0–19 years	80.5	83.3	88.9	109.1
20–39 years	81.6	82.8	88.0	105.4
40–59 years	74.1	85.6	83.5	96.2
60–69 years	20.4	29.3	38.5	42.8
70+ years	25.5	27.8	37.0	66.3
Total	282.1	308.7	335.8	419.9

Although all age groups are expected to continue growing, the number of persons aged ≥60 years is expected to nearly double, from 57 to 109 million between 2010 and 2050.

The U.S. population was 309 million in 2010; by 2050, the U.S. population is estimated to be greater than 400 million persons.

Chart Explanation: According to the U.S. Census, the total U.S. population in 2010 was 308,745,538; by 2050, the population is expected to be 419,853,587. While the total populations of all age groups are all expected to grow over time, the rates of growth are expected to be much higher in the older age groups. From 2010 to 2050, the expected number of U.S. residents aged 60-69 years old is expected to increase from 29.3 to 42.8 million and the number aged ≥70 years old is expected to increase from 42.8 to 66.3 million.

As with most chronic diseases, increased age is a well-known and powerful risk factor for the development of CKD (National Kidney Foundation, http://www.kidney.org/kidneydisease/ckd/index.cfm); consequently, prevalence of CKD is highest among older Americans (Coresh et al., 2007). Additionally, U.S. incidence of ESRD is highest among older adults (United States Renal Data System, 2011). Although age is not modifiable, it remains important for a U.S. CKD surveillance system to estimate the proportions of the population who will be among the older age (i.e., higher-risk) groups for both incidence and progress, as the U.S. population changes over time. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) conducts a decennial population census, as mandated by the U.S. Constitution to guide apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Census 2000 and Census 2010 contained items regarding age, gender, race, Hispanic/Latino origin, and housing characteristics and was administered to the entire resident population of the United States. From the data collected, both population estimates (www.factfinder2.com) and projections (United States Census Bureau, 2008; http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/index.html) are available publicly.

As with most chronic diseases, increased age is a well-known and powerful risk factor for the development of CKD (National Kidney Foundation, http://www.kidney.org/kidneydisease/ckd/index.cfm); consequently, prevalence of CKD is highest among older Americans (Coresh et al., 2007). Additionally, U.S. incidence of ESRD is highest among older adults (United States Renal Data System, 2011). Although age is not modifiable, it remains important for a U.S. CKD surveillance system to estimate the proportions of the population who will be among the older age (i.e., higher-risk) groups for both incidence and progress, as the U.S. population changes over time. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) conducts a decennial population census, as mandated by the U.S. Constitution to guide apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Census 2000 and Census 2010 contained items regarding age, gender, race, Hispanic/Latino origin, and housing characteristics and was administered to the entire resident population of the United States. From the data collected, both population estimates (www.factfinder2.com) and projections (United States Census Bureau, 2008; http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/index.html)are available publicly.

Field	Data
Description of Measure	Age in the general population
Data Source	United States Census
Type of Data Source	Public
Data Set	U.S. estimates/projections 2000-2050
Health Care System Data	No
Regional or National?	National
Demographic Group	All U.S. residents
Numerator	Number of U.S. residents in defined age groups
Denominator	Number of all U.S. residents
Primary Data Source Indicator	Age (in years)
Primary Indicator Method of Measurement	Questionnaire (census-taking)
Secondary (1) Variable	Race/ethnicity
Secondary (1) Indicator Method of Measurement	Questionnaire (census-taking)
Secondary (2) Variable	Gender
Secondary (2) Indicator Method of Measurement	Questionnaire (census-taking)
Frequency of Measurement (Primary)	Every 10 years (cross-sectional)
U.S. Region Covered by Primary Variable	All
Period Currently Available	2050
Pending Data	2010 projections, 2020 estimates
Additional Data Items of Interest	Projections of U.S. population by demographic group through 2050
Limitations of Indicator	Self-reported race/ethnicity; projections associated with some amount of error
Analytic Considerations	Age groups are reported in 1-year intervals and can be collapsed into any intervals; race/ethnicity must be examined separately, non-Hispanic white and Hispanic white should be separated

References and Sources:

Coresh J, Selvin E, Stevens LA, et al. Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the United States. JAMA. 2007;298(17):2038-47.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17986697
National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. USRDS 2011 Annual Data Report: Atlas of Chronic Kidney Disease and End-Stage Renal Disease in the United States, Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health; 2011.
https://www.usrds.org/reference.aspx
Hollmann FW, Mulder TJ, Kallan JE. Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100. Population Division Working Paper No. 38; January 2000.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0038.pdf

Suggested Citation:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Chronic Kidney Disease Surveillance System—United States.
website. http://www.cdc.gov/ckd