Indicator Details: Percentages of Projected U.S. Population by Age
Data Sources
 
Stratification and Year Choices:

  Source
  • U.S. Census

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The proportions of people aged 60 years or older are expected to increase between 2000 and 2050 for both males (17% to 25%) and females (20% to 28%).

In 2010, 18% of U.S. residents were 60 years or older.

23% of white non-Hispanic residents were 60 years or older but only 13% of black, 13% of Hispanic, 14% of Asian, and 9% of other race/ethnicity residents were 60 years or older; similar patterns are expected through 2050, with the proportion of people aged 60 years or older growing in every race/ethnicity subgroup.
Chart Explanation: The proportion of the population aged 60-69 or 70 years or older is expected to increase from 18% in 2010 to 26.0% in 2050. The proportion of the population comprising the younger age groups will consequently decline, with the percentages of people in the U.S. population being 20-39 and 40-59 years each decreasing from 26.8% and 27.7% to 23.0% and 23.2%, respectively, by the year 2050. The proportions of the U.S. population in various age groups differed in 2010, with 22.9% of white non-Hispanic residents 60 years or older; only 13.2%, 13.3%, 14.3%, and 8.7% of people who were Hispanic, black, Asian, and other race/ethnicity were 60 years or older in 2010; similar patterns are expected through 2050, but with the proportion of people aged 60 years or older is growing for every race/ethnicity group. Among Hispanics and blacks, 37.6% and 31.1% were 0 to 19 years old, compared with 22.8% of white non-Hispanics, in 2010; by 2050, 30.6%, 27.9%, and 22.6% of these same populations are expected to be 0- to 19-year olds. The proportions of the people aged 60 years or older are expected to increase between 2000 and 2050 for both males (16.8% to 24.9%) and females (20.2% to 28.0%). Females are expected to continue to have longer life expectancy and thus have greater proportions in the age group 60 years or older than males, regardless of projection year.
As with most chronic diseases, increased age is a well-known and powerful risk factor for the development of CKD (National Kidney Foundation, http://www.kidney.org/kidneydisease/ckd/index.cfm); consequently, prevalence of CKD is highest among older Americans (Coresh et al., 2007). Additionally, U.S. incidence of ESRD is highest among older adults (United States Renal Data System, 2011). Although age is not modifiable, it remains important for a U.S. CKD surveillance system to estimate the proportions of the population who will be among the older age (i.e., higher-risk) groups for both incidence and progress, as the U.S. population changes over time. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) conducts a decennial population census, as mandated by the U.S. Constitution to guide apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Census 2000 and Census 2010 contained items regarding age, gender, race, Hispanic/Latino origin, and housing characteristics and was administered to the entire resident population of the United States. From the data collected, both population estimates (www.factfinder2.com) and projections (United States Census Bureau, 2008; http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/index.html) are available publicly.

As with most chronic diseases, increased age is a well-known and powerful risk factor for the development of CKD (National Kidney Foundation, http://www.kidney.org/kidneydisease/ckd/index.cfm); consequently, prevalence of CKD is highest among older Americans (Coresh et al., 2007). Additionally, U.S. incidence of ESRD is highest among older adults (United States Renal Data System, 2011). Although age is not modifiable, it remains important for a U.S. CKD surveillance system to estimate the proportions of the population who will be among the older age (i.e., higher-risk) groups for both incidence and progress, as the U.S. population changes over time. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) conducts a decennial population census, as mandated by the U.S. Constitution to guide apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Census 2000 and Census 2010 contained items regarding age, gender, race, Hispanic/Latino origin, and housing characteristics and was administered to the entire resident population of the United States. From the data collected, both population estimates (www.factfinder2.com) and projections (United States Census Bureau, 2008; http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/index.html) are available publicly.
FieldData
Description of MeasureAge in the general population
Data SourceUnited States Census
Type of Data SourcePublic
Data SetU.S. estimates/projections 2000-2050
Health Care System DataNo
Regional or National?National
Demographic GroupAll U.S. residents
NumeratorNumber of U.S. residents in defined age groups
DenominatorNumber of all U.S. residents
Primary Data Source IndicatorAge (in years)
Primary Indicator Method of MeasurementQuestionnaire (census-taking)
Secondary (1) VariableRace/ethnicity
Secondary (1) Indicator Method of MeasurementQuestionnaire (census-taking)
Secondary (2) VariableGender
Secondary (2) Indicator Method of MeasurementQuestionnaire (census-taking)
Frequency of Measurement (Primary)Every 10 years (cross-sectional)
U.S. Region Covered by Primary VariableAll
Period Currently Available2050
Pending Data2010 projections, 2020 estimates
Additional Data Items of InterestProjections of U.S. population by demographic group through 2050
Limitations of IndicatorSelf-reported race/ethnicity; projections associated with some amount of error
Analytic ConsiderationsAge groups are reported in 1-year intervals and can be collapsed into any intervals; race/ethnicity must be examined separately, non-Hispanic white and Hispanic white should be separated
References and Sources:
  • National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. USRDS 2011 Annual Data Report: Atlas of Chronic Kidney Disease and End-Stage Renal Disease in the United States, Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health; 2011.
    https://www.usrds.org/reference.aspx
  • Hollmann FW, Mulder TJ, Kallan JE. Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100. Population Division Working Paper No. 38; January 2000.
    http://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0038.pdf
  • Coresh J, Selvin E, Stevens LA, et al. Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the United States. JAMA. 2007;298(17):2038-47.
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17986697
Suggested Citation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Chronic Kidney Disease Surveillance System—United States.
website. http://www.cdc.gov/ckd