In 2010, 12%, 16%, and 5% of the U.S. population was black, Hispanic, and Asian, respectively; by 2050, these percentages are expected to reach 15%, 22%, and 8%.
The percentage of the U.S. population that is non-Hispanic white is expected to decrease from 64% in 2010 to 50% in 2050
In 2010, the percentage of the U.S. population aged 70 years or older that was black, Hispanic white, and Asian was 8%, 7%, and 3%, respectively; by 2050, these are expected to increase to 12%, 16%, and 8%.
In 2010, the percentage of the male U.S. population that was black, Hispanic white, and Asian was 12%, 16%, and 5%, respectively; by 2050, these are expected to increase to 15%, 23%, and 8%.
Chart Explanation: The proportion of the population classified as non-Hispanic white is expected to decrease over time, while the proportions of those classified as Hispanic, non-Hispanic black, and Asian are all expected to increase; by 2050, non-Hispanic whites are expected to comprise 50.1% (vs. 63.7% in 2010) of the U.S. population, while Hispanics, blacks, and Asians are expected to comprise 22.0%, 14.6%, and 8.0% (vs. 16.3%, 12.2%, and 4.7% in 2010), respectively, of the U.S. population. The percentages of the U.S. population that are non-Hispanic white, Hispanic, black, Asian, and other race are expected to differ by age. In 2010, blacks were estimated to comprise a relatively small percentage of the oldest individuals (8.0% of people aged 70 years or older); by 2050, they are expected to be 11.6% (45% increase) of people aged 70 years or older. A more striking pattern is seen in Asians (from 3.3% to 7.6% of people aged 70 years or older, a >2-fold increase). Additionally, the percentage of the U.S. population classified as Hispanic is expected to increase in every age group. In 2010, 6.6% of those 70 years or older were Hispanic, but by 2050, this is expected to increase by nearly 3-fold, to 15.9%. The percentages of the non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, and Asian populations are expected to increase for both males and females over time. The estimated percentages of females that are black (12.6% in 2010, projected at 14.8% in 2050) are slightly higher than the percentages of males that are black (12.2% and 14.5%). Similarly for Asians, the percentages of females (4.8% in 2010 and 8.4% in 2050) who are Asians are higher than the same percentages of males (4.7% and 7.5%). The opposite trend is seen for people of Hispanic origin; the percentages of males that are Hispanic (16.3% in 2010 and 22.5% in 2050) are slightly higher than the same percentages of females (15.8% and 21.5%).
CKD is more common is some racial and ethnic subgroups. Additionally, progression to ESRD is more common among blacks (who account for 29% of the ESRD population, compared to 12% of the general population) (United States Renal Data System, 2011) and white Hispanics (Peralta et al., 2006); however, the risk of mortality is lower in these subgroups. Thus, race/ethnicity could be considered a risk factor (albeit non-modifiable) for both initiation and progression of CKD. It is important for a U.S. CKD surveillance system to estimate the proportions of the population that will fall into these higher-risk categories as the population changes over time. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) conducts a population census every 10 years, as mandated by the U.S. Constitution to guide apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Census 2000 and Census 2010 contained items regarding age, gender, race, Hispanic/Latino origin, and housing characteristics and was administered to the entire resident population of the United States. From the data collected, both population estimates (www.factfinder2.com) and projections (United States Census Bureau, 2008; http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/index.html) are available publicly.
|Description of Measure||Race/ethnicity in the general population|
|Data Source||United States Census|
|Type of Data Source||Public|
|Data Set||U.S. estimates/projections 2000-2050|
|Health Care System Data||No|
|Regional or National?||National|
|Demographic Group||All U.S. residents|
|Numerator||Number of U.S. residents of particular race/ethnicity|
|Denominator||Number of all U.S. residents|
|Primary Data Source Indicator||Race/ethnicity|
|Primary Indicator Method of Measurement||Questionnaire (census-taking)|
|Secondary (1) Variable||Age|
|Secondary (1) Indicator Method of Measurement||Questionnaire (census-taking)|
|Secondary (2) Variable||Gender|
|Secondary (2) Indicator Method of Measurement||Questionnaire (census-taking)|
|Frequency of Measurement (Primary)||Every 10 years (cross-sectional)|
|U.S. Region Covered by Primary Variable||All|
|Period Currently Available||2050|
|Pending Data||2010 projections; 2020 estimates|
|Additional Data Items of Interest||Projections of U.S. population by demographic group through 2050|
|Limitations of Indicator||Self-reported race/ethnicity; projections associated with some amount of error|
|Analytic Considerations||Race/ethnicity must be examined separately; age groups/gender can be collapsed to get total numbers|
References and Sources:
National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. USRDS 2011 Annual Data Report: Atlas of Chronic Kidney Disease and End-Stage Renal Disease in the United States, Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health; 2011.
Peralta CA, Shlipak MG, Fan D, et al. Risks for end-stage renal disease, cardiovascular events, and death in Hispanic versus non-Hispanic white adults with chronic kidney disease. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2006;17(10):2892-9.
Hollmann FW, Mulder TJ, Kallan JE. Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100. Population Division Working Paper No. 38; January 2000.